April 25, 2010
The CrossFit Journal is proud to present this extraordinary article by Dr. Jeff Glassman. Formerly the Division Chief Scientist for Missile Development and Microelectronics Systems Divisions for Hughes Aircraft, Dr. Glassman has dedicated his career to improving the quality of science methodology among his peers and the community at large.
For years he has been disturbed by the lack of credible science identifying human activity as a cause of global warming. This paper is the latest of six papers published on his blog, Rocket Scientist’s Journal, and the first to advance the Sun as the cause of global climate change in the fine detail of the temperature record since the invention of the thermometer.
Dr. Glassman is the first scientist to show that the modern temperature record is contained in the reconstructed history of solar activity, and to advance a model for how that occurs. In his model, the ocean acts to absorb solar energy and return it to the atmosphere decades to centuries later, causing certain patterns in the Sun’s activity to be suppressed and other patterns to be reinforced as they affect Earth’s climate. The variations in the Sun’s activity are small, but are quickly amplified by clouds. This is a novel model for cloud reflectivity, called cloud albedo, in which increases in solar activity cause decreases in cloud cover by direct atmospheric warming, allowing more sunlight to reach Earth’s surface.
This rapid decrease in cloud cover to solar activity runs opposite to the slow increase in cloud cover caused by global warming, which adds humidity to the atmosphere to increase cloudiness. In this way, he says cloud albedo regulates Earth’s surface temperature in warm interglacial periods, capping Earth’s temperature within a few degrees of the present temperature. This, he says, doesn’t stop the greenhouse effect, but reduces its effect by at least one fourth. In the deep cold of the glacial minima known as ice ages, he notes that the atmosphere will be extremely dry and cloudless, turning off any greenhouse effect. In this condition, Earth’s temperature is controlled by the albedo effect of the surface because it is then covered by ice and snow, turning off the Sun and leaving Earth’s temperature to be the result of its internal heat.
Because the Sun variations match Earth’s temperature extremely well, human activities can be ruled out as a cause of observed global warming. However, the global warming movement, since 1988 headed by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), claims that the “fingerprint” of human activities are found in climate related measurements. Dr. Glassman investigates each of these claims and shows how they are false and scientific error.
In his first paper on climate, Jeff showed that the pattern of the solubility of CO2 in water as it varies with temperature is found in the ice core record. From this result, he concluded that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is a result of global warming, and not the reverse. This, he noted, is confirmed by the fact that the CO2 concentration lags temperature at various rates, with a dominant component at about one millennium, the cycle time of the ocean conveyor belt. He also noted that this natural source of CO2 into the atmosphere is missing from IPCC’s climate models.
In his second paper, Jeff responded to criticisms from a noted federal government champion of human-caused (anthropogenic) global warming, known as AGW. In this third paper, he showed the evidence for concluding that CO2 does not accumulate in the atmosphere, an assumption essential to the human-caused global warming notion. In his fourth paper, he showed how Earth’s climate is strongly correlated with one measurement of solar activity, the solar wind, a phenomenon missing from IPCC’s models. He shows that connection is approximately twice as strong as the connection between climate and the El Niño/La Niña effect, which IPCC claims exacts a terrible toll on humanity.
In his fifth paper, Jeff documents eight flaws in IPCC’s climate modeling, each of which is sufficient to invalidate AGW and IPCC’s work.
His sixth paper, reproduced here in the CrossFit Journal, draws from his earlier papers, which are critical of IPCC’s modeling efforts. It critiques IPCC’s fingerprint claims, but states a novel, positive model for Earth’s climate, one that stems from discovery of Earth’s entire record of temperature measurements in the radiation from the Sun.
About the Author: In addition to climate and economic research, Dr. Glassman is Chief Scientist for CrossFit, and is the author Evolution in Science, Hollowbrook, 1992, currently being prepared as a series for the CrossFit Journal. Additional biographical information is on the last page of the Solar Global Warming file. His blog is the Rocket Scientist’s Journal.